It’s been an interesting start to the SEC basketball season, but several games this weekend could tell us a lot more about how some of these teams will fare the rest of the way.
Let’s dive into some picks for the weekend.
Friday, December 2
Alabama (4-2) at Texas (3-3) – 9:30 PM ET, ESPNU
KenPom has Texas ranked 70th and Alabama ranked 71st, so these two are pretty even if you believe in those types of rankings.
But here’s the difference: Shaka Smart’s team has lost straight games by double digits (Northwestern by 19, Colorado by 14, and UT Arlington by 11). Those three teams aren’t exactly Duke, Kentucky, and Kansas. And the three wins for the Longhorns have come against bad teams (Incarnate Word, LA Monroe, and Eastern Washington).
Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide have played well for the most part, only coming up short against quality teams like Dayton and Valparaiso.
Texas hasn’t shot the ball well at all thus far this season (42.7% from the floor), and considering that Avery Johnson’s team prides itself on defense, that’s bad news for the Longhorns.
Braxton Key’s versatility has already been on full display, with the freshman leading the Crimson Tide in scoring (10.7 PPG) at this point in the season.
Alabama goes on the road and squeaks out a win.
Prediction: Alabama 64, Texas 60
Saturday, December 3
UCLA (8-0) at Kentucky (7-0) – 12:30 PM ET, CBS
The Wildcats have steamrolled everyone in sight, with their smallest margin of victory coming by 21 points against Michigan State. Yeah, John Calipari’s squad is good.
However, the question on everyone’s mind is just how good is UCLA? Well, here’s my answer: not good enough to beat Kentucky.
This is an early team tip for the Bruins coming from the west coast, and Kentucky is simply the better team.
Prediction: Kentucky 89, UCLA 75
Memphis (6-1) at Ole Miss (5-2) – 1 PM ET, SEC Network+
Consistency has been an issue for the Rebels. It was clear earlier in the season when Ole Miss struggled to put away teams like UT-Martin and UMass, and it was even more clear on Wednesday when the Rebels fell behind 48-19 at halftime in a loss to MTSU.
Their defense hasn’t been good at all, with Ole Miss now 314th in the nation in scoring defense due to opponents scoring 81.6 points per game.
Meanwhile, Memphis is playing good basketball under Tubby Smith and already has a solid win over Iowa on the résumé.
The Rebels are just too inconsistent for my liking right now.
Prediction: Memphis 80, Ole Miss 74
Georgia Tech (4-2) at Tennessee (2-3) – 1 PM ET, SEC Network+
The only guarantee in this game is that it won’t be pretty.
Tennessee played quality basketball in Maui despite only coming up with one win, so that’s something that Rick Barnes can build on in December.
Josh Pastner is dealing with a major rebuilding job in Atlanta, so the duo of Detrick Mostella and Robert Hubbs III should be enough to give the Vols the home win.
Prediction: Tennessee 74, Georgia Tech 67
Western Kentucky (3-4) at Missouri (3-3) – 3 PM ET, SEC Network+
Rick Stansbury’s team is in the middle of a seven-game stretch away from home, which is never enjoyable.
The Tigers gave their fans hope early on in nearly taking down Xavier in mid-November, but then turned around and only scored 52 points (on 25% shooting from the field) in a home loss to North Carolina Central.
Luckily for Missouri, Stansbury’s roster at Western Kentucky is nowhere near what it will be in a year or two. Missouri should bounce back and win this game.
The key word there being should.
Prediction: Missouri 68, WKU 60
Austin Peay (4-3) at Arkansas (4-1) – 8 PM ET, SEC Network+
There’s a lot to like about this Arkansas team, and Tuesday’s contest against Houston will be a better gauge of where the Razorbacks are at right now.
It’s hard to see the Governors making this much of a game.
Prediction: Arkansas 93, Austin Peay 72
Vanderbilt (4-3) vs. Minnesota (6-1) – 8 PM ET, ESPN3
This will be a cool atmosphere at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, with two team intriguing teams on the court.
The Commodores have had their ups and downs early in the Bryce Drew era, but recently picked up their best win of the season in taking down a highly underrated Tennessee State team.
Meanwhile, the Golden Gophers have cruised to a 6-1 start, with their only loss coming in a difficult road challenge at Florida State.
The key for Vandy in this game is quite simple: take care of the ball. Minnesota routed Arkansas a few weeks ago due to the Razorbacks turning the ball over 21 times. Unfortunately, turnovers have been one of Vandy’s biggest weaknesses this season (238th in the country with 14.6 per game).
Tuesday’s win will give the Commodores confidence heading into this one, but they fall just short in what should be a fun game.
Prediction: Minnesota 72, Vandy 69
Auburn (5-1) at UAB (4-3) – 8:30 PM ET, beIn
If Auburn wins this game, it’s almost guaranteed to start the season 9-1 thanks to a manageable upcoming schedule. Keep in mind that the Tigers only won 11 games all of last season.
Yes, Bruce Pearl knows what he’s doing. This team is extremely talented, and a road win at UAB would be yet another step in the right direction.
Freshman guard Mustapha Heron has been as good as advertised, and he’ll continue to be what fuels this team going forward.
UAB has faced stiff competition already with games against Kansas and Saint Mary’s, so it’ll be ready for this game.
Still, the Tigers walk away victorious.
Prediction: Auburn 77, UAB 71
Blake Lovell has worked in sports media for over 10 years. He currently covers SEC football and basketball for various publications.