The first rule of SEC basketball is that one can never fully understand SEC basketball.
Keep that in mind as we enter another unpredictable Saturday schedule that’s filled with upset opportunities around the league.
If you haven’t already, be sure to catch up on this week’s top stories in both audio and written form:
- Talking SEC basketball with Drew DeArmond on ESPN 97.7 in Huntsville
- SEC Basketball Mailbag: Conference perception, bad refereeing and more
It’s time for predictions that are sure to go wrong.
Season Prediction Record: 39-27 (conference play + SEC/Big 12 Challenge)
Texas A&M at No. 17 Florida – 12 PM ET, ESPN2
If I had to do my weekly SEC power rankings right now, the Gators would be No. 1.
Florida is one of the hottest teams in college basketball and has won its last five games by an average of 28 points.
On the flip side, Texas A&M has won two in a row but still isn’t anywhere close to playing its best basketball. The Aggies still have too many lapses and turnovers problems throughout games, and that doesn’t bode well for their trip to Gainesville since Florida leads the SEC in turnover margin (+4.1).
The Gators have improved their outside shooting, and considering that Texas A&M is second to last in the conference in 3PT FG defense (allowing opponents to shoot 37% from beyond the arc), it’s tough to see this game being close if Mike White’s team shoots it well.
Florida keeps on rolling.
Prediction: Florida 78, Texas A&M 64
No. 15 Kentucky at Alabama – 1 PM ET, CBS
Basketball is all about matchups. And despite scoring the huge quadruple overtime win over South Carolina in Columbia, I don’t think this is the best matchup for Alabama.
The teams that the Crimson Tide have lost to in SEC play (Auburn, Arkansas, Florida) have excelled at pushing the pace and making Alabama play at a higher speed. There’s no doubt that Kentucky will attempt to do the same.
The Wildcats are still averaging 90.2 points per game and have the kind of offensive firepower that’s needed to attack this outstanding Crimson Tide defense.
I would’ve felt better about the upset special had Kentucky entered this game cruising along with several wins in a row. But John Calipari should have his team’s full attention after the lackluster play in recent weeks.
A few ill-timed scoring droughts from the home team allows the Wildcats to sneak out of Tuscaloosa with the victory.
Prediction: Kentucky 76, Alabama 69
Vanderbilt at Missouri – 3:30 PM ET, SEC Network
Vandy fans have made their stance perfectly clear during my six-game streak of incorrectly picking the outcome of games involving the Commodores.
For my own safety, it’s pretty clear what I have to do here.
Prediction: Missouri 68, Vanderbilt 65
Georgia at Tennessee – 4 PM ET, ESPNU
The Bulldogs have now lost five of six overall and five straight in the SEC. So, why do I still find it hard to pick against them in this game?
The answer to that is pretty simple: JJ Frazier and Yante Maten. It doesn’t feel like a team with those two players should be 13-11 at this stage of the season. Maten is an SEC Player of the Year candidate that can do it all, while Frazier slices his way to the basket at will.
What’s the problem then? Well, Georgia’s recent schedule hasn’t been fun. The Bulldogs have played the SEC’s top four teams – Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina and Alabama – in their last four games, so that hasn’t helped.
As for the Vols, they were able to get back on track after the Mississippi State letdown by beating Ole Miss at home on Wednesday. Rick Barnes continues to work his magic, and he has Tennessee playing some of its best basketball of the season.
I have a gut feeling the Frazier/Maten effect will kick in and give Mark Fox a much-needed win to stay off the hot seat.
But since it worked for George Costanza, I will do the opposite and take Tennessee.
Prediction: Tennessee 74, Georgia 72
Auburn at Ole Miss – 6 PM ET, SEC Network
These two teams have been hard to figure out this season, but their both playing well as of late.
Even with the loss at Tennessee, the Rebels have played solid basketball since the SEC/Big 12 Challenge game against Baylor, and having Deandre Burnett healthy has been a big boost.
Meanwhile, Auburn is still riding the high of the Alabama sweep and most recently scored 98 points in the win over Mississippi State.
This game is a prime example of having no idea what will happen in SEC basketball games. The two teams are just very similar in terms of where they are at right now, which makes it hard to pick the winner.
Auburn won the rebounding battle in the last game between these two teams (36-26 edge for the Tigers in an 88-85 loss), but Ole Miss has been the better rebounding team for most of the season.
The Rebels have won nine straight games in the series, however, I love the way Auburn has played in its previous two road games (88-80 win at TCU and 82-77 win at Alabama).
Bruce Pearl is also getting good production from his bench right now. I’ll take the Tigers.
Prediction: Auburn 83, Ole Miss 79
No. 19 South Carolina at Mississippi State – 8 PM ET, ESPN2
I gave the Gamecocks their first-ever No. 1 ranking in this week’s SEC power rankings, but then came the loss to Alabama.
So, will Frank Martin’s team turn things around in Starkville? Maybe, but it won’t be easy.
Although the Bulldogs have been up and down all year long, one thing they’ve done well is play good basketball at home. Since losing to Alabama to start SEC play, here’s how Mississippi State has fared at Humphrey Coliseum:
- 67-59 win over Texas A&M
- 88-81 loss to Kentucky (still one of Mississippi State’s best games of the year)
- 89-74 win over Missouri
- 64-59 win over Tennessee (rallied from 19 points down)
The good news for South Carolina is that Sindarius Thornwell and PJ Dozier should play well enough to prevent a second straight loss.
Still, this is a potential upset to keep an eye on.
Prediction: South Carolina 65, Mississippi State 61
Arkansas at LSU – 8:30 PM ET, SEC Network
The Razorbacks have been one of the most disappointing teams in the SEC recently. It all started with the road loss to Missouri, and then Mike Anderson’s team followed it up with a blowout loss at home to Vandy.
The natural follow up to those bad losses would be to blow out LSU in Baton Rouge. After all, the Tigers have lost 12 of 13, and don’t have much to play for at this point.
However, LSU scored nearly 60 points in the second half at Kentucky on Tuesday and honestly looked decent at times throughout the game.
I don’t trust either of these teams right now, but the Razorbacks cannot lose this game. Or can they?
Prediction: Arkansas 83, LSU 77
Blake Lovell has worked in sports media for over 10 years. He currently covers SEC football and basketball for various publications.