Independence Bowl: Vandy vs. NC State Predictions

In SEC Football by Blake Lovell

Share

Location: Independence Stadium in Shreveport, LA

Date and Time: December 26, 5 PM ET (ESPN2)

No one can say that Vanderbilt took an easy path in getting to a bowl game.

Instead of winning the “winnable” games on their schedule (South Carolina, Kentucky and Missouri), the Commodores won a trio of games that no one thought they would (Georgia, Ole Miss and Tennessee).

However, six wins is six wins, and Derek Mason has his team playing better than ever entering a 2012 bowl rematch with North Carolina State. These two teams met four years ago at the Music City Bowl in Nashville, with Vandy earning a 38-24 victory.

But back to that whole “Vandy is playing better than ever under Mason” thing.

The Commodores had their stops and starts throughout the season, but the type of football they played in their past two games was outstanding.

Kyle Shurmur made confident throws. Ralph Webb was Ralph Webb. Zach Cunningham destroyed souls as usual.

The last two games made it clear that this Vandy team is invested in its head coach. After a lot of questions surrounding Mason’s future in Nashville, you couldn’t have scripted the final stretch of the season any better.

Meanwhile, NC State had a surprise finish of its own to cap off the regular season. The Wolfpack earned their sixth win with a statement win at rival North Carolina, with NC State racking up 259 yards on the ground (Matt Dayes had 104 yards and two scores).

Speaking of the ground game, that’s been the strength of the NC State defense all season. Dave Doeren’s team ranked fifth in the country this season in rushing defense (104.7 YPG), so Webb running all over the Wolfpack will a difficult task.

Another way to compare these two: quality of wins.

Here’s who Vandy beat this year:

  • MTSU (8-4)
  • Western Kentucky (10-3)
  • Georgia (7-5)
  • Tennessee State (7-4)
  • Ole Miss (5-7)
  • Tennessee (8-4)

Here’s who NC State beat this year:

  • William & Mary (5-6)
  • Old Dominion (9-3)
  • Wake Forest (6-6)
  • Notre Dame (4-8)
  • Syracuse (4-8)
  • North Carolina (8-4)

You could argue that both teams had their best win of the year in their regular season finale. That adds even more intrigue.

With all that in mind, the question is, who wins this game?

Bowl games are hard to predict due to the long layoff that teams face after the regular season. It would make sense to think that teams like Vandy and NC State that were riding a nice bit of momentum at seasons’s end would bring that momentum into bowl season.

Unfortunately, due to the break between games, there’s no way of knowing what you’ll get.

Those that didn’t see the Commodores play much down the stretch are likely basing their perception of the Vandy offense on Shurmur’s inconsistency throughout the year. That inconsistency could still show up in Shreveport, but based on his solid play against Ole Miss and Tennessee, it seems like he has turned a corner.

And that’s what this game will come down to:

Can Shurmur beat NC State with his arm? And does the layoff cause the Vandy offense to take a step back?

As good as Webb has been in the running game (1,172 yards this season and five TD’s in the past two games), the Wolfpack defensive line is no joke. Stopping Webb will undoubtedly be priority number one.

This is a tough game to predict, but it’s hard to look past what the Commodores did in the final two weeks of the season. They looked entirely different from the team that seemed to have its bowl hopes dashed with a dreadful loss at Missouri.

Vandy is one of the most confident teams in America right now.

And while NC State is the favorite according to Vegas, the Commodores haven’t had any trouble in the underdog role in recent weeks.

Independence Bowl Prediction: Vanderbilt 24, NC State 20

Other SEC Bowl Predictions