There is only one guarantee as SEC play arrives:
There are no guarantees.
Before we jump into Thursday’s games, here are several other resources to get you ready for opening night:
SEC Power Rankings: December 26 Edition
Southeast Hoops Episode 5: Weekly Mailbag
Let’s dive in.
Non-conference games
Stetson (6-8) at Alabama (6-5) – 8 PM ET, SECN+
As I mentioned in the weekly mailbag podcast, it’s a little premature to call Alabama a disappointment. The Crimson Tide played a strong non-conference schedule, but came out of OOC play with Arkansas State as their best win.
Alabama has the second best scoring defense in the SEC (only allowing 62 points per game), but is last in the SEC in scoring offense (67.3 PPG). That’s not a huge surprise since we knew this team’s strengths and weaknesses entering the season.
Once this team finds a consistent shooting threat, it should be fine.
UMKC (7-7) at Mississippi State (8-3) – 8 PM ET, SECN+
This should be a win for the Bulldogs at home before getting Alabama at home next Tuesday.
Mississippi State’s inexperience is still its biggest weakness, so Ben Howland will have to hope that things start to come together as they get more games under their belt in SEC play.
Lipscomb (6-9) at Missouri (5-6) – 8 PM ET, SECN+
It wouldn’t shock me if Lipscomb wins this game. And it probably wouldn’t shock Missouri fans if Lipscomb wins this game.
SEC games
Georgia (8-4) at Auburn (10-2) – 7 PM ET, ESPNU
This game features two of the most intriguing teams heading into conference play. Georgia is coming off of a loss at Oakland (who is far from a terrible team), while Auburn is sporting a four-game winning streak filled with twists and turns.
Let’s what the Tigers have done since suffering a horrible loss to Boston College:
- Tied an SEC record with 21 three-pointers in a 117-72 win over Coastal Carolina
- Followed that up by needing a buzzer-beater to beat Mercer
- Back-to-back wins away from home over Oklahoma and Connecticut
What a thrill ride. Now, Bruce Pearl’s team must prepare for a Georgia team with plenty to prove.
The Bulldogs had several missed opportunities in non-conference play. They lost by 10 to Clemson, 11 to Kansas and 10 to Marquette. Getting one of those wins would’ve put this team in a better spot right now.
Georgia isn’t getting a ton of production beyond the big two of Yante Maten (19.8 PPG, 8.3 RPG) and J.J. Frazier (15.1 PPG). That needs to change if this team wants to make a run at an NCAA bid.
Key Stat: After shooting only 16 threes in his first two seasons combined, Maten has already shot 20 this season. He’s shooting 45% from beyond the arc, and while he won’t shoot five a game or anything, adding that element to his game makes him even more dangerous. He’s still one of the most underrated players in the country.
Prediction: Everyone knows my thoughts on Auburn. I was higher than most on Pearl’s squad heading into the season, and even the awful BC loss wasn’t enough for me to back off of the Tigers just yet. This is still a young team, so that always adds an element of unpredictability. However, I’ll go with Auburn at home. Auburn 76, Georgia 72.
Tennessee (7-5) at Texas A&M (8-3) – 7 PM ET, SEC Network
If there’s a team in the top half of the conference that I don’t have a great feel for yet, it’s Texas A&M. The Aggies lost the three toughest games on their non-conference slate (USC, UCLA and Arizona), but did score a great win over Virginia Tech.
Something we are sure of is this: Tyler Davis is a monster. He continues to progress, and he’s getting help around him from guards D.J. Hogg and Admon Gilder. Freshman Robert Williams is also coming along nicely.
On the other side, the Vols have been the most surprising team in the league. Tennessee has been way more competitive than expected, and most recently picked up a underrated road win at East Tennessee State.
Key Stat: Texas A&M is 327th in the country (out of 347 teams) in free throw percentage. The Aggies are shooting 62.3% from the line. That’ll be something to watch for in close games.
Prediction: The Vols have played their best basketball away from home this season, so that trend may continue here. But I’ll take A&M to get enough from its supporting cast to win a tight game in College Station. Texas A&M 68, Tennessee 63.
Kentucky (10-2) at Ole Miss (9-3) – 8 PM ET, ESPN2
There’s nothing I can say here that you don’t already know.
Yes, Kentucky is far and away the best team in the SEC. And yes, it wouldn’t be a shocker to see the Wildcats run the table in league play.
As for Ole Miss, I’ve made my concerns pretty clear. The Rebels are last in the SEC in scoring defense (giving up 75.7 PPG), so that doesn’t bode well when Kentucky comes into town averaging 93 a game.
Key Stat: Really, the giving up 75.7 PPG is most important stat heading into Thursday. While Ole Miss has only given up 60 per game in its last three games, the opponents were Murray State, Bradley and South Alabama. Those three teams aren’t Kentucky.
Prediction: The good news for the Rebels is that they have a lot of scoring options. They boast three of the top 20 scorers in the league (Deandre Burnett, Sebastian Saiz and Terence Davis), so that’s promising. The bad news is that they’re playing a Kentucky team that can do all that, and then some. This will be must-see TV if you love high-scoring games. Kentucky 95, Ole Miss 83.
Florida (9-3) at Arkansas (11-1) – 9 PM ET, SEC Network
Is Arkansas legit? We’re about to find out.
The Razorbacks only have a single blemish on their record, with that coming on the road at Minnesota. Unfortunately, that’s the only true road game that Arkansas has played this season. But Mike Anderson won’t have to worry about his team hitting the road until next week when they visit Knoxville and Lexington.
That means that Arkansas is staring down a critical home game against the Gators to start SEC play. And after losing several close games out of conference, this game is equally important for Florida.
While we know nothing about Arkansas will away from home this season, that’s all we know about the Gators. They finally played their first home game of the season on December 21.
Key Stat: To no one’s surprise, the Razorbacks lead the SEC in steals per game with an 8.6 average.
Prediction: Another tough call. Florida is the better team overall, but it’s simply tough to win in Fayetteville. The impressive play of JUCO transfers Daryl Macon and Jaylen Barford has given the Razorbacks a solid boost to go along with the stellar inside-out duo of Moses Kingsley and Dusty Hannahs. This will be the best game of the night. Although the Gators are more battle-tested, my gut tells me to go with the Razorbacks at Bud Walton Arena. Arkansas 73, Florida 70.
Vanderbilt (6-6) at LSU (8-3) – 9 PM ET, ESPNU
These two teams are hard to figure out. Vandy has struggled offensively in Bryce Drew’s system, and the defense hasn’t been much better.
For LSU, the Tigers just wrapped up a 110-76 loss at Wake Forest. That’s not ideal.
As crazy as it sounds. LSU could start SEC play 3-0 if it can win this game. The next two games on the schedule are at Missouri and at home against Mississippi State.
Key Stat: The Commodores are at the top of the SEC in three-point field goal percentage (39.1%) and free-throw percentage (79.1%). When Vandy is shooting well, good things happen. When Vandy isn’t shooting well, bad things happen.
Prediction: Again, these are two rather unpredictable teams. These two are last in the SEC in turnover margin, so it could get ugly at times in Baton Rouge. It’s a must-win for the Commodores if they want to get their season back on track, so I’ll give them the nod. Vanderbilt 71, LSU 67.
Blake Lovell has worked in sports media for over 10 years. He currently covers SEC football and basketball for various publications.