SEC Basketball Tuesday Predictions: Can Mississippi State upset Kentucky?

In SEC Basketball by Blake Lovell

It’s another jam-packed Tuesday of SEC basketball action, with four intriguing games on the schedule.

Let’s dive into previews and picks for all the matchups.

Arkansas (13-4, 2-3) at Texas A&M (9-7, 1-4) – 7 PM ET, SEC Network

This game features two teams who aren’t where they want to be five games into the SEC slate.

The Razorbacks lost a head-scratching home game to Mississippi State last week, and the Aggies continued to struggle with turnovers in their own loss to the Bulldogs.

If Arkansas wants to make a march towards a possible NCAA tournament berth, the Hogs need to prove they can win a game like this. This team has still only won one true road game all season (and has only played three), so this an important contest in College Station.

The difference in this game? Turnovers. The Aggies are averaging 21 turnovers per game in SEC play, while Arkansas doesn’t exactly struggle to get steals (4th in the SEC with eight per game).

It’s hard to trust either team, and although A&M’s back is against the wall, it makes more sense to take the Razorbacks.

Prediction: Arkansas 68, Texas A&M 67

No. 5 Kentucky (15-2, 5-0) at Mississippi State (12-4, 3-1) – 7 PM ET, ESPN

This is without question the most intriguing game on Tuesday.

Several weeks ago, we thought this would be just another easy road win for the Wildcats. Now? Not so much.

Kentucky was far from perfect during its 2-0 week against Vanderbilt and Auburn, while Mississippi State is playing its best basketball of the season after winning two games most people thought they wouldn’t (at Arkansas and at home against Texas A&M).

The Bulldogs are currently second in the SEC in three-point shooting (38%) and average eight made threes per game. That’s a good stat to have when you want to challenge a high-scoring team like Kentucky.

The question is, will Mississippi State rise to the challenge? We all know about the youth and inexperience on this team, so it will take a massive effort to beat the Wildcats.

But perhaps that youth and inexperience is exactly what will keep the Bulldogs in this game. They’re playing with a huge amount of confidence and won’t be worried about all the extra challenges that come with playing Kentucky. Ben Howland’s team will just go out and play.

However, while Mississippi State does have a dynamic scorer in Quinndary Weatherspoon, it doesn’t have Malik Monk. And the latter will be the difference in the game.

Prediction: Kentucky 85, Mississippi State 75

Vanderbilt (8-9, 2-3) at Georgia (11-6, 3-2) – 9 PM ET, ESPNU

The only way the Commodores will win this game is by being physical and stopping JJ Frazier’s penetration.

Vandy’s defense in the home loss to Tennessee last Saturday was not good. It looked like a completely different team on the floor than the one that had a chance to beat Kentucky in the final minute of the game, but that type of aggressiveness and physicality is what’ll take to win on the road in Athens.

Despite the loss in Gainesville, Georgia has played solid basketball in its last two outings. The Bulldogs played the last four minutes and all of overtime without Yante Maten, yet still almost beat the Gators.

You can’t count out Bryce Drew’s team in a game like this simply because of their three-point shooting (still first in the SEC at 40%). On the flip side, Georgia doesn’t shoot the three well and will try to attack the paint to get easy buckets.

Based on the showing against Tennessee, I’m not confident enough in the Commodores getting stops on the defensive end of the floor in key situations. That’s why the Bulldogs are the pick here.

Prediction: Georgia 77, Vanderbilt 70

Tennessee (9-8, 2-3) at Ole Miss (10-7, 1-4) – 9 PM ET, SEC Network

Ole Miss will once again be playing without its leading scorer in Deandre Burnett, which I discussed in more detail on Episode 7 of Southeast Hoops.

The Rebels have scored their two lowest point totals of the season without Burnett on the floor (47 against Georgia and 56 against South Carolina), so that’s not an encouraging stat heading into this game.

Meanwhile, Tennessee is coming off of its best game of the season in Nashville. The Vols continue to progress as a program, and Rick Barnes deserves a lot of love for that.

Despite being a young team, the Vols don’t back down when they’re playing on the road. This team has played better on the road than at home this season, and the brutal non-conference schedule prepared them nicely for the grind of the SEC season.

Although Barnes has pointed out that he never knows what he will get from his inexperienced team, this is a case of two teams heading in different directions.

Until the Rebels get Burnett back on the floor, it’s hard to see them beating quality teams.

Prediction: Tennessee 69, Ole Miss 65