Saturday’s SEC basketball slate features intriguing matchups all around the conference.
And unlike many days thus far this season, this one feels highly unpredictable.
Which teams will come out on top? And could we see several upsets?
Let’s dive into the Saturday predictions.
Vanderbilt (8-10, 2-4) at No. 19 Florida (14-4, 5-1) – 12 PM ET, CBS
The Commodores come in riding a four-game losing streak after playing well in their first two SEC contests.
This team has obviously struggled more than anyone expected in Bryce Drew’s first season. The biggest issue has been on defense, with Vandy rarely finding the stops that it needs down the stretch in close games.
Meanwhile, the Gators are coming off of an ugly performance in Columbia that saw them go 0-for-17 from three-point land. Florida’s has issues of its own, but it’ll need to deal with those shooting woes to stay on track.
Luckily for Mike White and his team, the next three SEC games likely won’t pose a huge challenge.
As always, if the Commodores shoot the three well, they’ll be in this game from start to finish. But winning in Gainesville against an angry Florida team seems unlikely.
Prediction: Florida 76, Vanderbilt 67
Georgia (12-6, 4-2) at Texas A&M (9-8, 1-5) – 12 PM ET, ESPN2
No one thought the Aggies would 1-5 in the conference at this point. They just haven’t taken care of the ball on offense, which has led to several close games getting away from them.
Georgia has played better basketball after its 1-2 start, with Yante Maten and JJ Frazier being the stars of the show as usual. However, what’s really helped the Bulldogs is the solid play of Juwan Parker, who is now averaging 9.8 points and six rebounds per game.
Picking that trio over a struggling Texas A&M team would seem like the obvious choice, but I’m going in a different direction.
Billy Kennedy’s squad is in desperation mode at this point, and this is must-win for the home team. The early start will make this a bit sloppy, but I’ll take A&M to pull the upset here.
Prediction: Texas A&M 65, Georgia 62
Ole Miss (11-7, 2-4) at Missouri (5-12, 0-5) – 3:30 PM ET, SEC Network
Ole Miss scoring 80 points against Tennessee without Deandre Burnett was definitely a surprise. It was a game that Rebels desperately needed, and they got it.
Despite Missouri’s problems across the board, this is one of the few remaining chances for the Tigers to win an SEC games. Ole Miss is the better team, but I just have this feeling that this game is coming down to the wire.
Another factor is whether Burnett is on the floor. As of this writing, it doesn’t sound like he’ll play. Therefore, I’ll go with that assumption.
If Burnett is out of action, my gut tells me that the Tigers win the game. Yes, the Rebels played well in the second half against the Vols, but like most middle of the pack SEC teams, they also have a tendency to play really bad basketball at times.
Missouri has to beat someone. And if Burnett is out again, I think the Tigers have finally found a victory.
Prediction: Missouri 71, Ole Miss 69
Alabama (11-6, 4-1) at Auburn (12-6, 2-4) – 4 PM ET, ESPN2
You would think that a game featuring a 4-1 SEC team at a 2-4 SEC team would be easy to predict. But we all know that’s not the case in this conference.
This game features a complete contrast in styles, and here’s the proof that you need:
Alabama plays good defense, Auburn plays good offense. Something’s gotta give.
Overall, the Crimson Tide are the better team, especially when Danjel Purifoy isn’t on the floor for the Tigers. But it sounds like Auburn’s best NBA prospect may indeed be back in action, so that gives Bruce Pearl a major boost.
Another area worth watching is rebounding, as Alabama enters the game with the best rebounding margin in the SEC (+6.4), while Auburn enters with the worst (-3.3).
Again, this is the toughest game to predict due to the rivalry aspect and the different styles that these two like to play. Even Vegas thinks this is a complete toss-up.
So, I’ll refer to one of my golden rules: don’t trust a bad free-throw shooting team on the road in a hostile environment. The Crimson Tide are currently ranked 335th nationally in that category (62.8%).
I’ll take the Tigers with 51% confidence.
Prediction: Auburn 72, Alabama 68
No. 24 South Carolina (15-3, 5-0) at No. 5 Kentucky (16-2, 6-0) – 6 PM ET, ESPN
A whopping 107 total fouls were called in the games that these two played earlier in the week. So, my guess is that there’s at least 60 called in this one.
The Gamecocks officially became the second best team in league after scoring the ugly win over Florida on Wednesday. This team still hasn’t lost a game this season with Sindarius Thornwell on the floor (18.2 PPG and 6.9 RPG), so that means a sure win in Lexington is on the way, right?
Not so fast, my friends.
This game is going to feature a lot of physical play. There’s a good chance that the physicality affects the Wildcats a bit more than usual, and it’ll certainly be interesting to see how these young guys handle it.
But you just don’t pick against Kentucky at Rupp. I don’t see Malik Monk and company going off for 100 points since South Carolina only gives up 59.4 PPG, but the Wildcats keep rolling right along.
Prediction: Kentucky 80, South Carolina 68
Mississippi State (12-5, 3-2) at Tennessee (9-9, 2-4) – 6 PM ET, SEC Network
The Vols lost a head-scratcher in Oxford earlier in the week after playing their best game of the season at Vandy. As for Mississippi State, the Bulldogs battle Kentucky the entire way before losing by seven at home.
My guess is that the close loss to the Wildcats sticks with Ben Howland’s team heading into this game. You never know about a team’s mindset after falling short in its biggest opportunity of the year, so it’s hard to see Mississippi State playing that well in Knoxville.
Rick Barnes will have Tennessee ready to play, and the Vols score a much-needed home win.
But this is worth remembering: Always expect the unexpected in a battle of young teams.
Prediction: Tennessee 70, Mississippi State 66
LSU (9-8, 1-5) at Arkansas (14-4, 3-3) – 8:30 PM ET, SEC Network
Johnny Jones’ squad has only managed one win since December 19, so that doesn’t bode well for their trip to Bud Walton Arena.
Arkansas got a huge win in College Station on Tuesday, which should help the Razorbacks head the right direction after a difficult 1-3 open to conference play.
Listen, there’s no reason for me to pick LSU here. Only giving up 78 points at Auburn was progress (first time the Tigers had given up less than 80 since their Dec. 19 win over College of Charleston), but that won’t happen in this one.
The Hogs will force turnovers early and often and run away with the victory.
Prediction: Arkansas 91, LSU 75
Blake Lovell has worked in sports media for over 10 years. He currently covers SEC football and basketball for various publications.